This week, the domestic urea market has been organized in a range, and most of the new orders will be in the market within a short period of time.
According to the data compiled by the Huafu Chemicals Factory, the average price of urea in China this week was 3185 yuan/ton (about 473 US dollars/ton), up 0.09% month-on-month and 39.33% year-on-year.
Market trend analysis and forecast
1. Supply
- Some maintenance units are scheduled to resume production next week, and the daily output is expected to increase;
- In terms of port inventory, the supply of goods from the collection port has been shipped to the port one after another, and the inventory has not changed much;
- In terms of corporate inventory, the enthusiasm of downstream stocking has declined, and inventory is expected to increase slightly.
On the whole, the supply of urea in the domestic market has been stable recently.
2. Need
- In terms of compound fertilizers, the use of fertilizers in summer is approaching, and inventory is mainly digested, and replenishment needs may be up on demand in early June;
- In terms of plywood, manufacturers are not very motivated to stock up, and they just need to purchase and follow up;
- In terms of agricultural demand, the agricultural needs in the northwest and northeast regions are up step by step.
On the whole, the short-term increase in domestic urea market demand is limited.
3. Raw Material
- In terms of natural gas, the natural gas prices in the plan were sorted within a narrow range.
- In terms of coal, there is no significant reduction on the demand side for the time being.
On the whole, the cost and price of urea raw materials are rising steadily, and the profit of production enterprises is good, which has a direct impact on the price.
Huafu Chemicals believes that the domestic urea market will continue to decline in a narrow range next week, and the willingness of merchants to follow up will be slightly slower. The pace of industrial replenishment slowed down, and the actual transaction was flexible and changeable.
