Urea Weekly Review: Quotations are stable and small(May13-May19, 2022)

Time: May 20, 2022

As an important raw material for melamine powder, the new changes in the urea market have attracted much attention.

Huafu Chemicals has sorted out this week’s urea market situation for your reference.

 white melamine powder

This week, the domestic urea market was stable and rose slightly, and new orders and short-term demand were mainly on demand. The advance orders received by the manufacturers are acceptable, and the inventory continues to decline. In summer, fertilizers follow up on dips, and industrial high-priced supplements tend to be rational. The short-term shutdown of local devices increased, and the daily output decreased slightly.

The average price of China's urea market this week was 3,182 yuan/ton (about 474 US dollars/ton), up 2.58% month-on-month and 44.97% year-on-year.

 China's urea market price

Comparison between China's urea market price and the main force of futures

Market trend analysis and forecast

1. Supply

Some factories in East China and North China are still in the maintenance stage next week, and the daily output is expected to change within a narrow range;

  • In terms of port inventory, the goods collected at the port arrived at the port step by step, some were shipped, and the port inventory was stable and small;
  • In terms of corporate inventory, downstream stocking is more cautious, and corporate inventory in some regions may increase.

It is expected that there will be little change in the domestic urea market supply next week.

2. Demand

  • In terms of compound fertilizers, fertilizers have gradually arrived at the grassroots level in summer, and the market demand is limited, and the market focus has shifted to clearing inventory. Most fertilizer companies decide production based on sales. With the decrease in the number of fertilizer orders to be issued in summer, the production load will be reduced or the production will be stopped for maintenance or increased;
  • In terms of plywood, the start-up load of plywood manufacturers fluctuates within a narrow range, and most of them are used as needed;
  • In terms of agricultural demand, it is acceptable to follow up the agricultural demand in the northwest and northeast regions.

On the whole, due to the expected increase in the production stop and reduction of compound fertilizers, the demand for next week may be less.

3. Raw materials

  • In terms of natural gas, the natural gas price range is arranged in the plan.
  • In terms of coal, as the coal market has declined and the price of chemical products has slowed down, the price of anthracite lump coal has stabilized.

On the whole, the price of urea raw materials fluctuates in a narrow range, the profit of manufacturers is relatively good, and the enthusiasm for production scheduling is relatively high.

 melamine powder factory

Huafu Chemicals believes that the domestic urea market will continue to run in the range next week, and the willingness of merchants to follow up with new orders will slow down. The industry will make up for short-term dips, and pay attention to the follow-up urea plant changes and compound fertilizer procurement trends.

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